Are we Doomed?

[DZComposer]

OK, so today the DPRK has released a statement saying that it will nuke Tokyo if Japan shoots down the missile test.

 

This furthers my thoughts that the missile test will be fired at least in the general direction of Japan.

 

Anyway, things are heating up still.

[Redeemer]

OK, so today the DPRK has released a statement saying that it will nuke Tokyo if Japan shoots down the missile test.

 

This furthers my thoughts that the missile test will be fired at least in the general direction of Japan.

 

Anyway, things are heating up still.

 

Are you serious? Oh God this is kind of making me feel a bit sick.

 

>possibly firing missiles in the direction of Japan

>btw Japan if you interrupt it we'll nuke you on purpose

 

Hopefully the tests will be in a risk-free direction.

[ballisticwaffles]

Uhm... Query, what is preventing Japan from shooting down the nuclear missile as well?. Best Korea has quite litearrly given them ample time to at least start looking for this missile, its not like its coming out of the blue.

[unoservix]

nothing.

 

that is, assuming that North Korea can even 1) get the first missile off the ground, 2) get it pointed at Japan, and 3) actually get it to Japan, and then 4) get their nuclear missile off the ground, 5) get it pointed at Tokyo, and 6) actually get it to Tokyo. historically they have a pretty big problem with 1).

 

that said, it is worth pointing out that China has not really complained about the US/South Korean shows of military strength in response to all this North Korean bullshit. and those shows of strength included stealth bombers doing test bombing runs. i doubt China would be too thrilled if a war starts up on their doorstep, but they are obviously growing tired of Kim 3.0's shenanigans.

 

i would not be surprised if the Chinese force some manner of leadership change in North Korea, in fact.

[Harlow]

China will never break bonds with the US to favour a joke nation that thinks that its strength it's more worth in ideology rather than stability with their own citizens. They won't even  ally with more serious countries like Russia in the surreal WW3. China-U.S are apparently unbreakable.

[CrypticQuery]

Again, it is probably more bark-than-bite as always.  It seems as if the rhetoric only stands to convince the military of the DPRK that Un isn't completely incompetent.

[DZComposer]

Uhm... Query, what is preventing Japan from shooting down the nuclear missile as well?. Best Korea has quite litearrly given them ample time to at least start looking for this missile, its not like its coming out of the blue.

There are some concerns that the PATRIOT and AGEIS systems may not work exactly as designed. Neither system has ever actually engaged a ballistic missile in-flight. PATRIOT's performance against Palestinian rockets (that are far cheaper to make than a PATRIOT missile, I might add) is not very stellar, but PATRIOT was not designed to defend against a barrage of small rockets. We do know AGEIS can shoot down a sattelite, but a dead spy sattelite is not a missile.

But, there is also the fact that the DPRK doesn't really have a nuclear-capiable missile, and whether or not they can actually make a nuclear warhead is not entirely clear, though I have doubts. If they wanted to nuke Tokyo, they'd most likely have to do it old-school and drop a nuke from a plane. A plane which would find itself in tiny pieces all over the floor of the Sea of Japan before it even got close because there is no chance in hell that the DPRK could gain air superiority. Also PATRIOT was originally designed as an air defense SAM system. I'm sure a PATRIOT missile could down it if it somehow managed to get close to the city.

[Prince Elite]

I think that is just Un's way of trying to start his reign by making himself look good with the claim that he's willing to destroy NK's enemies. I mean, nobody's taking him seriously. He's too young, has no experience, and a lot of people ridicule his physique, or lack thereof and this move is him trying to prove himself. If they really tried to nuke the U.S as they claim, there will be nothing left of North Korea to bury considering they'll have to take on them, and most of the U.N if not all. China is very chummy with Australia and the U.S as of late and Australia and China have penned a economical pact so certainly our interests and theirs are aligned. I do believe North Korea made some claim about attacking Australia too. If the U.S goes to war, Australia must also go to war under the ANZUS treaty, and if Australia goes to war, China will probably follow considering the aligned interests. They might not even need that stimulus, who wants a turbulent neighbour who's threatening nuclear destruction. If they're crazy, they might just attack, but it'll be a cold day in hell for Korea after they do.

[Faisul]

The above, and I think the fact that what we're seeing is basically a soap opera between the senior military staff of the country and Un. If I'm not mistaken it's the generals who have the power, and Un's in a difficult position to establish his legitimacy. The generals know that without a Dear Leader figure there is no DPRK, and Un probably knows that without the generals there's none of the military consensus required to suppress the populace and rattle sabres. I love that phrase. Sabre-rattling. Anyway, with this stunt he gets to project determination, and weasel his way to international aid, maybe some lessened sanctions.

 

Though if the regime is on its last legs anyway god knows what they might come up with. They probably know that if they get into a fight their entire system will collapse and they will all die or be sent to the Hague, so they might throw every egg they have in one basket and explode it all over the place. Fascinating subject!

 

The problem with discussing anything to do with NK though is that we just don't know what's going on, pundits are basically writing speculative fiction when they're discussing what NK might or might not do. We do know people are starving and dying in droves, what kind of weapons they have, that the regime is an autocratic nightmare, and that the leadership may or may not be totally insane. It's an uninformed opinion, but to me, none of it is really impressive except for the damage potential should the leadership decide to go out shooting.