How well will this sell?

[ArwingFan]

How many units do you think this will sell?  I'm worried, the 3DS game sold poorly and if this game bombs then the big N might pull the trigger on the franchise.

[CrypticQuery]

Only time will tell, although seeing as its a first party title on the Wii U, I imagine that it will be modestly successful at the very least.

[Joseph.]

I'm worried, the 3DS game sold poorly and if this game bombs then the big N might pull the trigger on the franchise.

 

Star Fox 64 3D sold around 800,000 units which isn't that bad.

800,000 x 39.99 or 29.99 = More then enough money to keep the series going!

Now if a remake on a handheld can sell that much, imagine what a remake on a console would make!?

Enough to make another remake on the NX!!

(I would still buy it)

 

Edited September 6, 2015 by Joseph.

[Drasiana]

How many units do you think this will sell?  I'm worried, the 3DS game sold poorly and if this game bombs then the big N might pull the trigger on the franchise.

people have been whining about how "the big n" (ugh) will/has killed star fox since like star fox 64 came out

can we at least keep off the doom and gloom until after the game actually comes out?

Edited September 6, 2015 by Drasiana

[Fookes]

people have been whining about how "the big n" (ugh) will/has killed star fox since like star fox 64 came out

can we at least keep off the doom and gloom until after the game actually comes out?

I agree! Let's try to think positive!

[hirobo2]

This thing will sell a lot more than than SF64 3D.  Sales is proportional to consumer interest.  Youtube SF64 3D E3 trailer has 350K views, SFZ has 900K+ currently.  So, SFZ should sell 3x as many copies as SF64 3D!

[DZComposer]

Youtube trailer views do not predict sales numbers at all. Especially when you look at those numbers in a vacuum.

SF643D sold in the neighborhood of 860,000 units on a system that has sold 54 million units.

The Wii U has sold just over 10 million units. That said, the Wii U has a higher tie ratio than the 3DS, meaning that Wii U owners tend to buy more games than 3DS owners.

Your prediction is that SFZ will sell around 2.6 million units.

How likely is that? Well, let's look at other Wii U software.

The 2.6m mark has been surpassed by the following games:

• Super Mario 3D World
• SSB4
• NintendoLand
• New Super Mario Bros. U
• Mario Kart 8

Other than NintendoLand, which was a pack-in in the US and I believe Europe as well, these are the top games on the system from Nintendo's top-tier of franchises.

Splatoon sold around 1.5m units, as did Wind Waker HD.

Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze sold about 1.1m units.

Hyrule Warriors only barely breaks the million mark with Pikmin not quite being able to break-through the million-seller barrier.

Attach rates are important here. You're predicting 2.6m units on a system that has sold 10m units. You're saying that just over 1/4 of Wii U owners will buy this game. Only top-tiers and pack-ins have broken that barrier. Star Fox, as much as we'd like it to be, is not a top-tier franchise.

Also, let's not forget the lukewarm press reaction to the game so-far and the entirety of the internet seeming to think the game will suck because graphics.

Realistically, given Wii U sales, attach rates, and the general opinion of the game as it currently is I don't think the sales numbers for SFZ will be all that impressive.

As a franchise, Star Fox is in the same tier as Pikmin and DKC. Given that tier's Wii U performance, sales around the 1m mark are plausible, but not receiving great press thus far throws some water on that number.

A more realistic expectation I feel is somewhere between 700,000 and 900,000 units, or about the same as SF643D.

Edited October 26, 2015 by DZComposer
I accidentally a letter

[hirobo2]

Well, I used 3X as a ball-park figure.  SFZ was the main feature of this year's E3, so a lot of that 900K views were more out of curiosity.  But, SFZ will surely sell a lot more copies than SF64 3D.  That's b/c part of a marketing campaign's success is determined by how ppl viewers got exposed to the item you're trying to sell (Marketing 101)...

Edited October 27, 2015 by hirobo2

[DZComposer]

Projecting sales based solely on marketing is not how you do it. Marketing helps, but trends also have to be accounted for as well as reaction to your marketing. Also, exposure alone does not guarantee success of a marketing campaign. When the bulk of the reaction to SFZ's E3 presentation was "It looks like a gamecube game and the controls look awkward" you can't exactly call that a success. That said, I don't think the game is doomed. It is a first party game, and the only significant one in the pipe between now and Zelda (Which will probably be the next and last Wii U game to break 1m sales outright). That doesn't guarantee a million seller, though. Pikmin 3 was in a similar release window and it failed to reach the million mark. Most of the games that have broken the million mark on the Wii U have barely done so. That's because there have only been 10m Wii Us sold. If a million copies of a game are sold, that means 1 in 10 Wii U owners bought it. If it sells 2 million, 1 in 5 Will U owners bought it. Mario Kar 8 sold 5m units. That's HALF of Wii U owners!

Let's look at DKC Tropical Freeze for a moment. It's a same-tier franchise as Star Fox and it got a hell of a lot more marketing attention from Nintendo than Star Fox Zero has so far. It sold about 1m units. If reactions to Star Fox improve, I would expect it to sell about 1m as well, but if they don't my original prediction of 700,000-900,000 holds.

Sure, it is possible Star Fox Zero could turn to be a sleeper hit, but I have my doubts. Even if it did, the last one, Splatoon, failed to break 2m.

Also, let's remember that the number of 3DS units sold is about 54m. That's over 5 times the number of Wii Us sold. 800,000 of 54m is not the same as 800,000 of 10m.

Also, don't get snarky with me about Marketing 101. I have a business degree.

[The VGM Lover]

It would still be nice if the game could reach the 1 million mark at least by the end of 2016. I'm doing my best to try and promote it. 

[That Ain't Falco]

643D had one major issue: It's a retro game in a modern world.This meant that the majority of its audience was people who had played 64, and maybe people who knew the franchise from SSB.

Zero has everything it needs to sell, however. Hype, interesting gameplay, and recognizable characters. Miyamoto has stated that SF0 will be a rebirth for the franchise, a process that was started with 643D, which I believe was at one point even going to have the subtitle "Phoenix"

The series will keep on going. If anything, Zero should help it. Let's not ring the doomsday bells just yet, or plan to ring them in the future. We did the same with Adventures. And Assault. And Command. Actually, Command kinda deserved that. Regardless, however, Nintendo still believes in the series, and Miyamoto seems hyped for this next game. When the devs are legitimately happy, it's a good sign.

[The VGM Lover]

On 10/29/2015 at 0:14 AM, DZComposer said:

 Mario Kar 8 sold 5m units. That's HALF of Wii U owners!

Let's look at DKC Tropical Freeze for a moment. It's a same-tier franchise as Star Fox and it got a hell of a lot more marketing attention from Nintendo than Star Fox Zero has so far. It sold about 1m units. If reactions to Star Fox improve, I would expect it to sell about 1m as well, but if they don't my original prediction of 700,000-900,000 holds.

Sure, it is possible Star Fox Zero could turn to be a sleeper hit, but I have my doubts. Even if it did, the last one, Splatoon, failed to break 2m.

Also, let's remember that the number of 3DS units sold is about 54m. That's over 5 times the number of Wii Us sold. 800,000 of 54m is not the same as 800,000 of 10m.

 

I need to bring this post up to date.

According to this: http://www.technobuffalo.com/2016/02/02/nintendos-sales-figures-amiibo-splatoon-mario-maker/

Wii U is now above the 12 million mark, now, thanks to the holiday sale. Mario Kart 8 is now at over 7 million. A LOT more than half, and Splatoon sold over 4 million now. 

According to this (The only source that told me it): http://www.vgchartz.com/game/73169/donkey-kong-country-tropical-freeze/

DKC TF is now at 1.36 million.

I do agree with your prediction that SFZ will sell 1 Million liftime. I do, however, hope the game exceeds this, at least with a 2 million mark, lifetime.